Canada's (and Ontario's) carbon budgets

Some time ago, I posted my theories on the impact of carbon budgets on Canada's emission reductions. In summary, I calculated that, if we want to keep temperatures from rising more than 1.5 C, Canada has at most 16 (since corrected to 8) years in a budget based on our share of current emissions (1.7%) and approximately two years for a budget based on our share of the global population (0.5%.)

When I applied the same calculations to Ontario's emissions and compared them to the new Ontario Climate Action Plan (OCAP), my conclusions are that Ontario has 5 years left in our budget based on a fair share of the global population (0.19%), but OCAP's targets only reduce our emissions 80% by 2050. In order not to exceed our fair share of the global carbon budget, Ontario's targets should be 37% by 2020 and 100% by 2030.

If you are interested in a more detailed description of my calculations, I have posted them on climateactionnow.ca/canadas-carbon-budget and climateactionnow.ca/ontarios-carbon-budget.